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Then there are the polls. For a number of reasons, polling has become less reliable in predicting electoral outcomes. The avalanche of telemarketing calls, the growth in cell phone use and the public’s general disgust with politics have made it much more difficult to get people to respond to pollsters and to sit still for an in-depth interview—let alone open their front door to an unfamiliar interviewer. Automated phone polls have a mixed track record. On-line surveys are the latest attempt to adapt to a changing communications landscape, but they have their own drawbacks, particularly a tendency to over-represent zealous respondents in a way that gives a louder voice to the most opinionated on both sides of the political divide. And, perhaps, swings the pendulum toward voters with access to, or comfort with, computers. The 2016 Presidential Election gives ample proof that polling is an inexact science. Most polls got the outcome wrong. The USC-LA Times Poll received kudos for predicting a Trump victory, but it was actually considerably off base, since Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. And that’s what nationwide surveys measure; they do not and cannot predict individual state electoral vote outcomes. There is also the issue of turnout models. The accuracy of every poll is contingent upon a sample that accurately predicts turnout. In 2018, the past is hardly prologue. Who is going to vote? Will #MeToo, anti-Trump fever and the teen mobilization after the Parkland shooting result in a turnout that is younger and more female than that for “normal” non-presidential primaries, as has been the case in several recent special elections? Will backlash against President Trump and the presence of prominent Latino candidates—including former L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in the governor’s race and State Senator Kevin de Leon, challenging Senator Diane Feinstein—produce a heavy Latino turnout? Will the GOP be successful in getting enough of its dwindling base to get excited over gas taxes and sanctuary cities to produce a respectable turnout?
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